Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo, so they’ll always be a title threat as long as that’s the case. With how thin their bench is, injuries can derail the over, simple slippage due to age can derail them, and the rest of the roster simply isn’t made of players you want to give more minutes. Khris Middleton is 32 years old, Jrue Holiday is 33, Brook Lopez is 35. They added Malik Beasley, who has been inconsistent from stop to stop. But given the high degree of difficulty and how few coaches can just crank out 50-plus win teams, it’s fair to say the range of outcomes for Griffin in his first season skews towards less than 52. He might be better than Budenholzer, even in the regular season. His teams both in Atlanta and Milwaukee were regular season wagons full of wins. Mike Budenholzer may have been too rigid and uncreative in the postseason, but Bud knows how to win regular season games. Next, they did not just run it back they fired their coach. strength of schedule) and won more than 55 games are 5-1 to the under the following season. Teams that won two more games than their Pythagorean expectation (based on point differential vs. First, they had a Pythagorean expected wins number of just 51.9 they wildly over-performed. The market assumption is that the Bucks just ran it back so they’ll be above 52 again. Milwaukee Bucks Under 52.5 (+110, DraftKings) And they may not get a nearly two-month stretch of home games to fatten up like they did this last season. Denver went under this number last year, and now they are worse with less motivation. Injuries will hit Denver harder than last year the drop from Jamal Murray or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to Reggie Jackson is greater than that to Bruce Brown.ĭenver doesn’t need the No. Now, after a summer celebrating a championship, with potentially two of their players already on short rest playing in FIBA World Cup (Jamal Murray is committed to Team Canada, Nikola Jokic may play for Serbia), and with a bench that is now primarily made of youngsters, their margin for error has dissipated. 1 seed, they wildly underperformed at the start the campaign and the end, effectively coasting into the playoffs. Even during a season in which they secured the No. I have the Nuggets’ true win total last year at just 49. This is made all the more impressive considering that most sharp bettors and analytics favor them and so the numbers start at a high point.īut Denver has lost the margin for error, is dealing with a championship hangover, and is getting a postseason bump for a regular season number. They have consistently outperformed expectations. The Nuggets have gone over their win total every season under Michael Malone outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season. It pains me to go against one of the best win total trends in recent history, but the moment has arrived. Denver Nuggets Under 54.5 (-105, DraftKings)
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